Maritime Operations Risk Analysis Models
In the past, a Port's main role was to create jobs and develop local infrastructure. As a consequence of the deep changes brought forth by economic globalization, ports face many challenges, including:
- Regional and national economic development Promotion
- Involving the private sector in the development, operation and financing of projects
- Increased competition from other ports, some neighboring, and global.
- Growing trends in logistics such as transshipment, transloading, top-off and slow-steaming
- Environmental Issues and Disaster recovery
This brings more risk concerns into the management, operations and investment areas as a consequence of managing a more complex administration in an environment of uncertain results.
A risk is any unintended or unexpected outcome of a decision or course of action and can be defined as expected adversity E (A). It can be estimated as the product of the probability (pf) of adversity or failure and the magnitude of the possible adversity (A).
Adversity is the loss or dis-utility expressed in terms of money or some other quantifiable attribute, which permits risk to be expressed as E(A)= pf * A(1)
This Model will be created as a tool to manage and quantify the risk factors facing all the risks related directly with the port as well those that could affect the local economy.